Research

Abstract:

A long-running debate in the international relations literature is whether international agreements are effective at producing domestic policy change. Much of this research focuses on national-level indicators of policy and the domestic political interests that are thought to influence it. However, there can be wide subnational variation in both policy changes and the strength of countervailing pressures. I apply this framework to protected areas, a key policy response to the biodiversity and climate crises that has significant distributive consequences over land use. Using an original geospatial dataset on 846 ecoregions worldwide 1992--2020 combined with novel measures of anti-protection interests, I find that when a country becomes more deeply embedded in the international environmental regime, it is more likely to protect more land. Local economic pressures, however, shape where this protection occurs. This subnational framework helps synthesize findings in the literature, and deepens our understanding of a critical area of environmental and land use politics.

Abstract:

The world is experiencing the increasingly destabilizing effects of climate change, but we currently know little about its effects on the quality of democracy. We argue that climate shocks trigger a cascade of environmental, social, and economic effects that negatively impact democracy. The accelerated frequency and severity of climate-induced natural disasters and weather shocks, and their devastating economic and social consequences, increase the frequency of civil and political unrest, especially in contexts where climate-induced disasters compound and the government is unable to address citizen grievances. The pressures to respond to political instability increases the likelihood that governments rely on repressive measures that reduce democratic resilience. To test this argument, we explore whether and how countries that experience more climate shocks have an increased likelihood of experiencing a decline in democratic governance, compared to countries with fewer climate shocks. We find that the effects of climate change significantly reduce the quality of democracy within a country, and that this is driven by increased instability and repressive measures in response. These findings have important implications for the future of democratic governance in a world increasingly confronted with the negative effects of climate change.

Abstract:

Biodiversity decline and ecosystem loss are among the gravest crises facing the planet. Protected areas (PAs) are the most common policy to address these issues, but we have little understanding of the politics that surround them. Previous work claims that economic dependence on natural resources undermines green policies, including PAs. I argue that because resource dependence causes environmental degradation, it can lead to political mobilization that results in protection. In democracies pro-protection pressures are more likely to influence policy, leading to more PAs. The adverse effects of resource dependence mainly apply to less democratic countries where extractive interests are even more powerful. I test this argument with a novel panel regression discontinuity design at country-border pairs from 1992 to 2020, using geospatial data. I find that the effect of natural resource dependence on PAs is conditional on democratic institutions, and illustrate the mechanisms with a case study of Costa Rica.

Abstract:

The rapid spread of information communication technologies across and within borders has been an important feature of the contemporary era, with the internet is at its core. Until recently, the widespread belief was that the internet would be beneficial for the spread and resilience of democracy. This common wisdom has become increasingly contested, as political actors in democracies and autocracies alike have learned to use the internet to maneuver information to enhance government popularity and suppress or delegitimate the opposition. We argue that open information access can be weaponized to reduce democratic resilience when duly elected leaders with anti-pluralist aspirations harness them to increase political polarization. We test the empirical implications of our theory with a mixed-methods approach that combines a large-N quantitative comparative analysis of democratic backsliding in 97 democracies after the Cold War with a typical case study of democratic resilience in India to trace the underlying causal mechanisms of the theory. Together, the findings indicate that with growing access to the internet has come the increased likelihood of democratic backsliding, especially when anti-pluralist parties use them to increase polarization and executive power.

Abstract:

Armed conflict is known to degrade environmental governance and increase resource extraction. Can international agreements ameliorate this problem?  I study this question in the context of wildlife trade, which is a known driver of species decline---hundreds of millions of individuals are traded internationally each year. I argue that armed conflict leads to spikes in legal wildlife trade, but that a species being listed on CITES, the key international wildlife trade regulation, can prevent these spikes. Increased international scrutiny and attention on listed species help prevent this form of environmental degradation. To test my argument, I use a multi-level research design taking advantage of highly disaggregated data on US wildlife imports from 2000 to 2022, spanning over 20,000 species and 3 million records. I combine this data with spatial information on both species ranges and conflict location. I first find that species in conflict zones experience increased trade. Then, I show that CITES listing eliminates spikes in trade from conflict. Mechanism tests point to the role of international attention on listed species. The findings demonstrate that international agreements combined with mobilized attention can prevent environmental degradation, even contexts where environmental governance is mostly likely to be diminished.